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October 20, 2009 Time to buy a home?Posted: 06:28 PM ET
As America’s wobbly economy begins to stabilize, many people with money saved up and good credit should consider buying a home now. Home prices have come down a lot, and interest rates are at historic lows. ![]() Not that the danger signs aren’t still out there: job losses, distressed home sales and foreclosure filings are likely to continue. In fact, a new forecast of real estate prices predicts home values could go down further in 342 out of 381 markets by next summer. Overall, the national median home price could drop another 11percent by June of 2010, says Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. Nevertheless, both home prices and mortgage rates have dropped more than any other time in history. While you can safely bet that prices still have more room to come down, that bet may not be such a sure thing when it comes to interest rates. Right now a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is hovering around 5 percent, the lowest in half a century. They are low in part due to a flush of cash from the Federal Reserve since last year’s financial meltdown that has kept interest rates low. The problem is the longer we have low rates, the more we risk fueling inflation. Although we don’t have any hard evidence that consumer prices are going up right now, you can bet the policy makers at the Fed are closely monitoring the situation. Just the fear of inflation may prompt the Fed to start pushing rates up again - and sooner than you think. What that means for procrastinating home buyers is this: putting off a purchase now could cost you more in the long run. For the sake of illustration, let’s say you close on a single-family home next month at the latest national median home price of $177,500, and you’re able to secure a mortgage rate of 5 percent. Over the lifetime of the loan, you could pay out a total of $378,500 for your home. Let’s say you put off your purchase to September of next year, but you’re able to get the same home at a lower price of $160,000. That’s a savings of $17,500, right? But, what if the loans on offer have inched up two percentage points higher than what you can get right now? Your total home purchase over the lifetime of the loan could cost you as high as $414,600. That lower priced home at the higher rate of 7 percent will end up costing you some $36,000 more in the long run. That’s why if you have credit and cash right now, it could be an excellent opportunity to buy a house. Tell us what you think. Call in with your thoughts to the Ali Velshi Show on CNN Radio at 1-877-266-4189, Wednesday starting 11 a.m. EDT. Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent June 4, 2009 Where the jobs will bePosted: 08:18 AM ET
The economy is expected to come out of recession later this year, according to many forecasters. And as the economy starts to pick up, companies will slowly start thinking about hiring again. So now may be the time to start planning for that eventuality, and take a look at where these new jobs will be found. ![]() Finance, information technology and manufacturing industries still continue to see a steady decline in jobs, while sales, customer service and business development seem to be at a standstill. But CareerBuilder.com - an online service for job seekers - does see jobs growth in three major sectors. Here is what they say: 1) Healthcare: This is the fastest growing industry in terms of jobs, averaging at 93,000 new jobs per month. Jobs in demand include both medical and administrative positions, because of a growing elderly population. 2) Insurance: Partly as a result of growth in healthcare, the insurance industry is growing at a rate of 54,000 jobs per month, in spite of the economic downturn. 3) Government and Education: The growing population in the U.S. is increasing demand for government programs and school administration, creating a need for an additional 20,000 employees per month. Continued growth in these sectors is consistent with what the Labor Department has been reporting in its monthly employment reports. But CareerBuilder.com says it sees a 10 percent increase in the number of construction jobs available since the beginning of 2009, noting that recent projects launched by the government are opening up job opportunities in the industry. To be sure, housing construction is still way down from its highs during the housing bubble - so I'm still cautious about growth prospects in construction in the near future. Still, wherever you look for a job, try not to limit yourself - take advantage of your transferable skill sets. People tend to think of their job titles and industries as defining them, but in today’s economy you need to broaden your appeal to succeed. For example, if you're an accountant or a financial analyst looking for work, you shouldn't just send your resumes out to banks. Your skills and experience and experience could be transferable to a growth industry like healthcare or education. That's something to think about. Ali Velsh is CNN's Chief Business Correspondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent May 20, 2009 Tough new car fuel economy rulesPosted: 04:12 PM ET
President Barack Obama announced new rules on Tuesday to get the auto industry to make more fuel efficient cars and light trucks. Under current rules, automakers are supposed to manufacture car fleets that average 25 miles per gallon. ![]() That means that some cars in an automaker's "fleet" can have better fuel mileage, while other vehicles - SUVs, mini-vans and the like - come in well below the government mandated average. Obama's new proposal would toughen fuel efficiency standards to 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. The automakers seem to be on board, because Obama's new rules propose a federal standard for fuel efficiency standards, taking the bite out of states like California that impose tougher rules than the rest of the country. Still, the new rules as proposed will push automakers to make and sell more fuel-efficient cars - meaning more compacts, hybrids and the like. The question is will Americans want to buy smaller cars? Here are some things they will have to consider: 1) Cost vs. savings. The White House says all the new rules - including some recently enacted - will increase the price of a car by a total of $1,300 per vehicle; but, that does not factor in the long term savings consumers could see at the gas pump. If more Americans start driving fuel-efficient cars over the long haul, that could ease demand on gasoline and keep prices down. 2) The environment. According to some, the United States consumes up to 10 percent of world oil output just driving their cars and trucks (including big-rigs transporting goods across the country). Obama argues that more fuel efficient cars on the road will make a dent in carbon emission in this country. 3) Energy security. Obama has even couched his tougher rules in national security terms, because America's growing dependence on imported oil has become such a burning issue in Washington. Obviously, Americans will decide what vehicles suit their needs, and if all the tougher standards do get enacted, they will have to pay more to buy their SUVs. Still, the U.S. is just playing catch up with the rest of the world. Japan plans to move to the 35.5 miles per gallon car fleet average next year, six years ahead of President Obama's proposal. And, the European Union is pushing for a more ambitious 47 miles per gallon car fleet average by 2012. We're not there yet! Ali Velshi is CNN’s Chief Business Correspondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent May 6, 2009 Time to look at stocks again?Posted: 10:43 AM ET
After weeks of steady gains, the stock market has regained all of its losses sustained since the beginning of this year. If you were to chart the year-to-date performance for the S&P 500 index, it would look like a big letter 'V'. ![]() Imagine a line starting on January 1, sliding down to this year's low point on March 9, and then shooting back up to this week, back at the same level from the start of the year. Since the S&P is tied to so many of our 401(k) retirement plans and mutual funds, now may be the time to take a look at stocks again. The stock market is what we call a "leading indicator" on the economy, meaning stocks can be one of the first signs that a recovery is around the corner. And, there are other signs out there showing we may have bottomed out in this recession: Pending home sales jumped 3.2 percent in March, and construction spending inched up 0.3 percent in the same month. Last week, the Economic Cycle Research Institute - a leading research group that has a near perfect record in forecasting this stuff - predicted the recession could end as soon as this summer. And now, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says recovery will begin later this year. So, what can you do now to plan for a recovery later this year? If you still have a job, and you're in good health, you can start by prioritizing your finances: 1) Take a fresh look at your high-interest debt. Make a serious attempt to pay off your credit card balances as the economy starts to improve. 2) Save for a rainy day. Set aside at least six months worth of cash to get you by, just in case. 3) Revisit your investment portfolio. Review your retirement accounts and mutual funds, and re-balance your investments to meet your long-term goals. Stocks may have recovered this year's losses, but they're still down over 40 percent from their highs in October 2007. But, as prospects grow for an end to this recession, the stock market could be poised for more gains going forward. So, now is the time to start planning ahead. Visit my online tool at at cnnmoney.com/ali to help you measure your investment goals. There you will be prompted with seven simple questions that will help you balance your portfolio to fit with your goals and your appetite for risk. Ali Velshi is CNN’s Chief Business Correspondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent May 4, 2009 Recession end in site?Posted: 01:36 PM ET
One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession -– the longest in half a century - will end this year, possibly as early as this summer. ![]() Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the U.S. was in a recession. Now he's one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is a research group that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating "leading indicators" which show where the economy is headed. The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. Both indicators have showed steady growth since then and that, says Achuthan, is enough data for him to say this recession is ending. That's because, over the last 75 years, when those indicators turn up, the recession ends within four months. No exceptions, says Achuthan. But don’t buy the party supplies just yet. The end of a recession simply means that things will start becoming "less negative." A top adviser to President Obama says the economy will again shrink in the second quarter of this year - that's the period we're in now. But Achuthan's declaration doesn't really counter that. He doesn't think recovery will start until the third quarter -– sometime after June. So if this recession really does end this summer, now may be the time to start planning for an economic recovery that could be closer at hand. Here are some questions I want to ask: 1) Will you spend more? A sure sign of growing consumer confidence will be when the transport industry - trucking companies and express mail services - see a jump in shipping orders. That will be one of the early indicators that this recession is coming to an end. 2) What's your investment strategy? If the recession is really ending soon, then this may be the time for Americans to think about re-engaging the stock market and look now at companies that stand to gain in a recovery. 3) Could the recovery be "jobless?" Jobs are always a "lagging indicator" in any economic recovery, and the longer that takes, the more businesses try to improve productivity with fewer workers. And, how do you have a recovery if job losses continue? The Labor Department says 6.3 million people are now drawing unemployment benefits -– that's a record. And, a number greater than that are unemployed but not collecting benefits, because their benefits have run out. ECRI's Achuthan worries that during a recession, we all become more productive, by working with less (we fill in when our colleagues are laid-off, for instance), and so you don't need to hire all of those people back for the economy to recover. The danger of that is that many millions of people who have lost their jobs may not get them back in this economy -– and that can create great disparity in society -– "haves" who have more; "have nots" who have less. Ali Velshi is CNN’s Business Correspondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent April 28, 2009 Swine flu's impact on the economyPosted: 06:22 PM ET
Whether the swine flu outbreak in Mexico spreads quickly to become a worldwide epidemic, or ends up being something much less, we're starting to see the potential economic impact unfold. There are confirmed cases here in the United States and a number of other countries around the world; and already we're seeing travelers reconsider their itineraries and trade barriers start to go up - at least temporarily. ![]() Russia announced a ban on meat imports from Mexico, Texas and California, stoking the concerns of officials in Washington. Other countries are following suit. U.S. Trade Representative Ronald Kirk said: "We want to make sure that a handful of our trading partners don't take advantage of this and engage in behavior that could damage the world economy." Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told Americans and the world that pork products in this country are safe to consume, because the virus is not food-borne. Meanwhile, the outbreak has hit America's $770 billion travel industry already feeling the pinch from the recession, as more people cut back on both business and leisure travel. Mexico vacations had been a bright spot, because they tend to be cheaper than other vacation destinations. Some airlines, hotel chains and cruise lines are allowing American travelers - heeding the Centers for Disease Control warning to forgo non-essential travel to Mexico - to cancel or delay their reservations. With all this in mind, let's take a look at some potential economic winners and losers in this swine flu outbreak: 1) America’s travel industry could lose a lot in a health crisis. As mentioned earlier, U.S. travel companies have already started responding to concerns about travel to Mexico, which only accounts for a small percentage of overall revenue. The real concern for the industry going forward is the fallout the flu scare could have on domestic travel, which accounts for almost 90 percent of total revenue. 2) U.S. agriculture exports could suffer. As with Russia's recent example, many countries responded with bans on U.S. meat imports when small outbreaks of mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease led to some culling of herds in this country - bans that took years to overturn. 3) Some pharmaceutical companies could make out just fine. Many drug companies could benefit from an upswing in demand for vaccines if swine flu turns out to be a bigger problem than it already is. Having said all that, I wouldn't advise all you day traders out there to rush out and buy pharmaceutical stocks, or short airline stocks. This swine flu crisis could go the way of the last two big health scares, the SARS outbreak of 2002 and the avian flu scare in 2005. Those two incidents turned out to be relatively limited events, after initial fears of massive epidemics spreading around the globe. Still, we should be concerned about this swine flu scare, and not just because of the potential health consequences to us all. If swine flu does develop into a worldwide crisis of epidemic proportions, the current global economic recession will get much worse, and it will take much longer for world economies to recover. Ali Velshi is CNN’s Chief Business Correspondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent April 10, 2009 The pursuit of happinessPosted: 09:36 AM ET
You may have heard of something called the Misery Index. It's an indicator economists conjured up to judge the quality of life in a given locale by linking the local jobless rate and inflation numbers to come up with a picture for general "misery." ![]() Well, the folks at MainStreet.com, a financial site linked to The Street, have flipped the Misery Index on its head, and come out with their own first ever financial "Happiness Index," with some surprises. 1) Nebraska is where Americans are "happiest." That’s right, the state that brought us Kool-Aid, Cliff's Notes and Warren Buffett ranked tops in the nation, according to MainStreet. 2) Iowa and Kansas are almost as "happy" as people in Nebraska. If you really want to be financially happy, then you might want to consider moving to the midwest. 3) The least "happy" Americans live in what many people think are "fun" states. Nevada, California, Florida and even Oregon came in at the bottom of the list because of soaring job losses. MainStreet rated and ranked states based on household income, debt, employment and home foreclosure rates. They came up with a "blended average" for each state and decided the midwest is the best. Sure, some of the individual rankings in different areas were higher for some of the coastal or more urbanized states, where average salaries tend to be higher. But, MainStreet settled on Warren Buffet's home state because they calculated a higher overall average across rankings. And where did my highly urbanized, relatively high-salaried state I now call home come in at? New York ranked a mere 14 on MainStreet's rankings - because job losses are starting to mount on Wall Street and other big sectors hurt by this recession. MainStreet's going to update its list every month going forward. In the meantime, I'm thinking of moving out west in pursuit of happiness! Ali Velshi is CNN's Chief Business Correpsondent Posted by: Ali Velshi -- CNN Chief Business Correpsondent |
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Clark Howard is HLN's money expert, hosting his own show on weekends.
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Ali Velshi is CNN's Chief Business Correspondent, hosting Your $$$$$ and appearing regularly on American Morning.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta is CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent and host of House Call.
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