Oil came dangerously close to $150 a barrel last week, but is down a few dollars this week off its record high. Crude prices have shot up almost $50 a barrel in the first six months of this year. At that rate oil could very well hit as high as $200 a barrel by the end of the year. That means gasoline could shoot up to $6 a gallon, and Americans will be forced to change their driving habits more than they’ve ever done up to now.

A few months back, the president of OPEC predicted oil would hit the $200 mark, but laid the blame for that on excessive speculation in commodity markets. Some Wall Street analysts agree with his price prediction, but place the blame squarely on the world’s growing appetite for energy — in other words, good old supply and demand.

The truth is there are several factors out there contributing to oil’s meteoric rise. Here’s a summary of some of the root causes out there for soaring oil prices:

1) Growing demand: Growth in China, India, Russia and the Middle East is fueling oil consumption in those countries, and it is using up the world’s excess supply.
2) Higher production costs: Rigs and other equipment now cost more, especially for deep oil drilling– where the cost of leasing a rig has climbed above $600,000 a day– a 30 percent jump in two years.
3) A weak dollar: Remember, oil trades throughout the world are denominated in dollars, so the weaker value against other currencies can push prices up further.
4) Speculation concerns: Investors are flocking into oil markets to make money on price movements, without actually taking delivery of any oil — a phenomena being fueled in the U.S. as stock prices and home values continue to fall.
5) Conflict with Iran: The saber rattling over a possible military attack on Iran is making markets nervous. Any attack could lead an Iranian blockade of the Straight of Hormuz — a narrow waterway on its coast where as much as 40 percent of the world’s oil passes through.

Any one of the factors should be enough to push prices higher. The truth is there is more than one factor contributing to oil’s rise, making a break in prices unlikely anytime soon.

So, Americans may have to brace for the unthinkable — oil at $200 a barrel. There are a lot of factors driving prices up. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of factors that might drive them down right now.